How Big Oil Keeps Profits Flowing Despite Low Oil Prices | Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies (2025)

Picture this: oil prices are tumbling, markets are in chaos thanks to global tensions and sanctions, yet the giants of the oil industry—those behemoth companies we often call Big Oil—are still swimming in profits. It's a scenario that seems counterintuitive, almost shocking, and it's sparking heated debates about corporate resilience and economic strategy. But dive deeper with me, and you'll uncover how these titans are not just surviving; they're thriving in tough times. And this is the part most people miss: their clever maneuvers are turning potential disasters into opportunities, all while the rest of the energy world struggles.

Over the last few weeks, oil markets have swung wildly, fueled by major geopolitical events like fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Russia's energy exports and a shaky truce in Gaza. As a result, crude prices have dipped significantly below their recent peaks. For instance, Brent crude and WTI are currently hovering about $15 per barrel less than their 52-week highs. This slump has hit the bottom lines of oil and gas firms hard, with the energy sector showing a dismal third-quarter earnings growth of just -0.5%. To put that in perspective, only the Communication Services industry fared worse, clocking in at -7.1%, while both lagged far behind the broader market's average growth of 13.1% for the period. What's more, energy companies posted the slowest revenue growth across all 11 U.S. market sectors, at a mere 1.0%, compared to the S&P 500's 8.3% clip.

Yet, Big Oil hasn't collapsed under this pressure—in fact, they've outperformed expectations in many ways. Despite the dip in prices, many of these heavyweights are reporting profits that, while down, remain impressively solid. Intriguingly, rather than slashing production to conserve resources, these companies have ramped up output, effectively cushioning the blow from falling prices. Take Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), for example: their third-quarter earnings hit $7.54 billion, a 12.4% drop from the previous year, with revenues sliding 5.3% year-over-year to $5.3 billion. But when you look at their first nine months, earnings totaled $22.3 billion, down 14.3% from the prior year—a hefty sum that shows their underlying strength. Collectively, the four big players—Exxon, Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Shell (NYSE:SHEL), and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE)—raked in over $21 billion in net income for the quarter, even as oil prices fell more than 20% compared to the year before. It's a remarkable feat, but here's where it gets controversial: are these companies prioritizing short-term gains over long-term sustainability by keeping production high?

There's a smart strategy behind this apparent madness. Exxon, for instance, unlocked an extra $2.2 billion in structural cost savings during the third quarter, bringing their total since 2019 to over $14 billion. They're aiming for more than $18 billion by 2030, achieved through innovative tactics like automation—think robots handling routine tasks to cut labor costs—optimizing supply chains to reduce waste and delays, and enhancing operational technology for better efficiency. This has lowered their breakeven point (the price per barrel needed to cover costs and break even) by $10-15 compared to five years ago, making them far more adaptable to price swings. For beginners, the breakeven point is like the minimum sale price a business needs to avoid losing money; imagine a lemonade stand where you must sell cups for at least $2 each to cover your ingredients and overhead. Exxon's portfolio-weighted breakeven now sits at $40-42 per barrel, providing a comfortable buffer even when oil trades at $60. Confident in their setup, they've boosted hydrocarbon production to 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d)—a measure that combines oil and gas output for easy comparison, like converting apples and oranges to a single fruit count—and including nearly 1.7 million boe/d from the Permian Basin and over 700,000 boe/d from Guyana. To top it off, they launched the Yellowtail project ahead of schedule, four months early, expected to pump out 250,000 boe/d and push Guyanese output beyond 900,000 boe/d.

Chevron tells a similar tale. As the second-largest U.S. oil producer, they set a record with global output of 4.09 million boe/d, up 21% year-over-year (Y/Y), including a 27% Y/Y jump in domestic production to 2.04 million boe/d. They pulled this off with fewer drilling rigs and completion teams, showcasing impressive operational efficiency—essentially doing more with less by streamlining processes. Third-quarter net profit dipped to $3.54 billion from $4.49 billion the year before, and earnings per share fell to $1.82 from $2.48, but revenues barely budged, holding at $48.17 billion versus $48.93 billion, thanks to that increased production offsetting cheaper crude.

European giants, however, have an edge that their American rivals can't fully match: savvy oil trading. Shell leads the pack as the world's top oil trader, with a trading operation larger than even industry giant Trafigura's. In their recent reports, they highlighted 'significantly higher optimization results' from trading units. Sanctions on Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil have created wild swings and price gaps in regional markets, allowing traders like Shell to profit from these differences—buying low in one spot and selling high elsewhere. While Shell doesn't disclose exact figures, court documents reveal their U.S. oil trading arm generates roughly $1 billion annually, forming a big chunk of their pre-tax U.S. profits. Likewise, TotalEnergies' integrated power and gas trading division netted $800 million in the quarter, up nearly 10% from the previous one. Exxon and Chevron do dabble in trading, but on a smaller, more cautious scale, focusing on logistics—like ensuring their own supply chains run smoothly—rather than chasing big speculative bets on volatility.

But here's an angle that often flies under the radar: is this trading prowess a genius move or a risky gamble that could backfire if markets stabilize? And this is the part most people miss—these strategies aren't just about survival; they're fueling a new era of disciplined operations and shareholder rewards. Big Oil is sticking to cost-cutting and cash returns, with ExxonMobil dishing out $4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share buybacks in Q3, bolstering earnings. Shell has maintained buybacks over $3 billion for 16 straight quarters, while Chevron and TotalEnergies distributed $6 billion and $4.5 billion, respectively.

As we wrap this up, it's clear Big Oil's adaptability is turning challenges into triumphs, but at what cost to the planet? Should these companies scale back in the name of climate goals, or is their profit-driven approach the only way to keep the lights on? Do you agree that ramping up production amid low prices is shortsighted, or do you see it as smart economics? Share your take in the comments—I'm curious to hear differing views!

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

How Big Oil Keeps Profits Flowing Despite Low Oil Prices | Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies (2025)

References